Commodity Focus By Kotak Securities

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Speculative Sentiment Barometer: Major Commodities in US Exchanges


The sentiment oscillators, ranging between 0 and 100, provide insights into market sentiment. When the oscillator is closer to 0, it indicates that, based on more than 15 years of historical data, speculative sentiment is at its most bearish. This suggests a high level of pessimism among market participants, with a prevailing belief that prices are likely to decline.

Conversely, when the oscillator approaches 100, it signifies that speculative sentiment is at its most bullish. This implies an elevated level of optimism among traders and investors, with a strong expectation that prices will rise.

In summary, the sentiment oscillators offer a gauge of market sentiment, with lower values indicating bearish sentiment and higher values indicating bullish sentiment, based on historical trends spanning over 15 years.


Check the charts below: 🔽🔽🔽

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Please note that November 20,2024 will be the trading holiday on account of Assembly Elections.
Thus the Expiry has been *preponed to November 19,2024*

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🇮🇳 *Soybean production update*

India’s soybean production for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) is projected by the USDA at 12.6 million metric tons.

While this figure represents a slight 2% decline from the previous month’s estimates, it is a 6% increase from the 2023/24 season, marking a record-high yield despite initial challenges.

Harvested area is set at an all-time high of 13.5 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year, reflecting India’s continued expansion of soybean cultivation.

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World soybean demand and supply

The U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest estimates for 2024/25 world soybean supply and demand.

Production:
* Global soybean production is projected to decline by 3.5 million tons to 425.4 million tons.
* The primary reason for this decline is lower production in the United States and India.
* India's production is specifically lowered by 0.2 million tons based on information from the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA).

Trade:
* Global soybean exports are expected to increase due to higher shipments from Brazil, Canada, and Benin, although this increase is partially offset by lower U.S. shipments.
* Imports are projected to rise for Pakistan.

Crush:
* Global soybean crush is expected to decline due to lower U.S. crush, which is not offset by increased Pakistani crush.
Ending Stocks:

* Global soybean ending stocks are projected to decrease by 2.9 million tons, primarily due to lower stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.

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Cotton - World market and trade

The U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest estimates for the 2024/25 world cotton supply and demand.

Source: USDA

Production: Global cotton production is projected to decline by nearly 500,000 bales to 116.2 million bales. This decrease is mainly attributed to lower production in Pakistan and Turkmenistan.

Consumption: Global cotton consumption is expected to fall by more than 500,000 bales to 115.2 million bales. This decline is primarily due to reduced consumption in Turkey and Pakistan.

Trade: Global cotton trade is projected to decrease by 300,000 bales to 42.2 million bales. U.S. exports are lowered by 200,000 bales, and there are also minor reductions in exports from Uganda and Malawi. A significant reduction in Turkish imports, more than offsetting an increase in Uzbek imports, contributes to the overall decline in global trade.

Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks are forecast to decrease by nearly 600,000 bales. This reduction is mainly due to historical revisions to Indian and Turkmenistani production, as well as lower production in Pakistan for the 2024/25 season.

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Hi,                                  
KCALRT : INTRADAY: BUY MCX SILVERM NOV 91000 PE, BOOK PROFIT AT (CMP-1527)
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Hi,                                  
KCALRT : INTRADAY: SELL MCX COPPER NOV, BOOK PROFIT AT (CMP-834.90)
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🇨🇳China Crude oil imports update

China's crude oil imports in October 2023 witnessed a 9% year-on-year decline, reaching 44.7 million tons or 10.5 million barrels per day, as reported by customs data.

This marks the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year decrease in imports.

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Hi,                                  
KCALRT : INTRADAY UPDATE: BUY MCX CRUDE OIL NOV 6000 PE, BOOK PROFIT AT (CMP-157)
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Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment : Positive for USD

Actual: 73

Survey: 71

Prior: 70.5

Source: forexfactory


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A decline in U.S. Treasury yields is bolstering gold, which in turn is providing support for silver in today's U.S. session. However, silver is still lagging behind gold due to a sell-off in base metals.

Silver, influenced by gold, emerging market stocks, and base metals, faces downward pressure as the latter two struggle, pushing the gold-silver ratio higher.

Hi,

KCALRT : INTRADAY: BUY MCX GOLDM NOV 77000 PE, SL TRADED AT 600

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Hi,
KCALRT : INTRADAY: BUY MCX NATURALGAS NOV 230 CE, SL TRADED AT 9.45

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Hi,                                  
KCALRT : INTRADAY: BUY MCX SILVERM NOV 91000 PE AT 1350 TP 1650 SL 1150 (CMP-1350)
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Hi,                                  
KCALRT : INTRADAY: BUY MCX CRUDE OIL NOV 6000 PE AT 123 TP 160 SL 100 (CMP-123)
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