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🎥 [NEW VIDEO] THE WEEK AHEAD

Rate calls, policy speeches, and heavyweight data are lining up to rattle markets.
With FXTM’s USDInd down over 9% year-to-date, the stakes are high into next week’s catalysts.

🔍 In this video:
📊US NFP – Tuesday: October’s missing pieces filter in and a soft print could boost 2026 cut bets.
🧾US CPI – Thursday: Cooling or sticky? Inflation tone that may reshape the Fed path.
🇪🇺ECB Meeting – Thursday: Policy hints that could swing the euro, and by extension, the USDInd.
📈Technicals: Pressure zones and key levels on watch -100.00, 99.00, 98.00, 96.50.

🎯 Does the dollar extend its slide, or do surprises flip the script?

#FXTM#TheWeekAhead#USDInd#USD#NFP#CPI#ECB#EURUSD#MarketOutlook#TechnicalAnalysis#TradingOpportunities

📲 Watch the full breakdown, only on FXTM’s official Telegram. 👇

📰

🚨

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In this guide, we break down market volatility into clear, practical insights you can actually use.

✍️Comment "VOLATILITY" to get the link to a free FXTM guide!

#FXTM#trading#education#free#forex#guide

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🇺🇸US500 – All Eyes on the Fed Today

The broader U.S. market is holding steady ahead of the Fed decision.
Unlike the tech-heavy NAS100, the US500 captures banks, energy, healthcare, industrials and more — meaning the reaction could be more balanced across sectors.

A softer Fed tone → usually lifts most sectors.
A tougher Fed tone → tends to pressure the entire index.

📊

What to Expect

No rate hike is expected.
The big driver = Fed outlook for 2026 and beyond.

🔥POTENTIAL OUTCOMES

Neutral:
No change + “We’ll see how incoming data evolves.”
→ US500 may stay range-bound.

Dovish:
“We expect more cuts next year.”
→ US500 could grind higher toward fresh highs.

Hawkish:
“Inflation hasn’t eased enough.”
→ US500 may slip modestly as yields rise.

📈

KEY LEVELS
Support: 50-day MA
Resistance: 6,929 (all-time high)

📈NAS100 – Fed Decision Could Set the Next Big Move

Tech stocks have been resilient, but the NAS100 reacts fast to changes in interest-rate expectations.
If the Fed signals easier policy ahead → bullish for tech.
If the Fed sounds cautious or inflation-focused → yields may rise, pressuring the index.

📆

What to Expect Today

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady.
The real market driver will be:
• The tone of the press conference
• Updated rate projections

🔹Dovish Fed → NAS100 bullish
🔹Hawkish Fed → NAS100 bearish

🔥POTENTIAL OUTCOMES

Neutral:
“We’re waiting for more data.”
→ NAS100 likely stays range-bound.

Dovish:
“More cuts are likely next year.”
→ NAS100 may push higher toward new highs.

Hawkish:
“Inflation remains a concern.”
→ NAS100 may pull back as yields firm.

📊

KEY LEVELS
Support: 50-day MA
Resistance: 26,289 (all-time high)

USDCAD: Fed–BoC Showdown Puts the Loonie in Play

The Canadian dollar has firmed in recent sessions, helped by rising oil prices and steady domestic data, keeping USD/CAD under pressure.
Now, both the Fed and the Bank of Canada deliver rate decisions on the same day — a rare double-event that could ignite major volatility.

The USD remains highly sensitive to Fed guidance, while CAD will respond to both BoC policy signals and broader risk sentiment.

📆

When?

Bank of Canada Decision: Wed, Dec 10 @ 14:45 GMT
Federal Reserve Decision & Projections: Wed, Dec 10 @ 19:00 GMT / 23:00 GST

📊

Market Expectations

🇺🇸Federal Reserve
• 25 bp cut expected → new range 3.50%–3.75%
• Probability: mid-to-high 90%

🇨🇦Bank of Canada
• Expected to hold at 2.25%
• Probability of no change: ~90–93%, reflecting steady inflation (2.5%) and resilient growth

📈USDCAD expected move:
+0.1% / –0.2% within 6 hours of the BoC announcement.

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE USD/CAD?

CAD Bullish Scenario:
A dovish Fed (hinting at deeper 2026 cuts) + a steady or firm BoC stance → USD weakens, CAD strengthens.
→ USD/CAD could fall 0.5%–1.2%

CAD Bearish Scenario:
A hawkish Fed (fewer cuts, inflation concerns) + a dovish BoC → USD strengthens.
→ USD/CAD could rise 0.5%–1.0%

Neutral Scenario:
Fed + BoC outcomes align with expectations → USD/CAD stays range-bound within 0.3%–0.6%

📊

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS (Technical Outlook)

BULLISH for CAD (USD/CAD lower):
• Fed turns clearly dovish
• USD/CAD may test the Sept 17 swing low at 1.37263
• A break below opens the path to June 16 low at 1.35397

BEARISH for CAD (USD/CAD higher):
• Hawkish Fed or softer BoC tone
• USD/CAD could climb above the 200-day SMA (1.3906)
• Momentum may extend toward 1.4000 (50-day SMA)

🇺🇸US500 – Markets Hold Their Breath Ahead of the Fed

The US500 has been moving sideways as traders await Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, one of the last major catalysts of 2025.
A dovish outcome is almost fully priced in, but the real market driver will be Powell’s guidance for 2026.

According to Bloomberg, markets assign a 99% probability of a 25 bp cut as inflation cools and the labour market softens—without collapsing.

📆

When?
Fed Decision & Projections: Wed, Dec 10@ 19:00 GMT / 23:00 GST

📉Expected:
Cut of 25 bps, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75%

📈 US500 expected move: +1.3% / –1.3% in the 6 hours post-decision.

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE US500?

BULLISH SCENARIO:
Fed cuts rates and signals more easing in 2026 → risk appetite surges.
US500 could gain 2–4%, breaking to new all-time highs and pushing beyond the 7000 psychological level.

NEUTRAL SCENARIO:
Fed cuts as expected but offers cautious guidance—hinting at a possible pause early 2026.
US500 may trade sideways within a 1–2% range, consolidating recent gains.

BEARISH SCENARIO:
A hawkish surprise (rate hold or fewer future cuts) → volatility spikes.
US500 may drop 2–5%, falling below its 21- and 50-day MAs, and potentially revisiting the October 10 price-gap around 6512.5.

💸

FXTM’s AU200 – RBA RATE DECISION

DID YOU KNOW…
FXTM’s AU200 is hovering near a breakout zone, with support at 8560 and resistance at 8650.
(AU200 tracks the S&P/ASX 200 — Australia’s top 200 listed companies.)

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE AU200 THIS WEEK?

📆

Tuesday, 9 Dec – RBA Rate Decision (03:30 GMT)
The RBA is widely expected to hold rates at 3.6%, but traders will be hunting for clues on whether cuts may arrive in early 2026.

📈 AU200 expected move: +0.4% / –0.7% in the 6 hours post-announcement.

Traders currently price a 0% chance of a December rate cut.
Beyond Tuesday, Thursday’s employment data could add another layer of volatility.

📊

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

BULLISH:
If the RBA hints at a rate cut in Q1 2026, AU200 may break above 8650, eyeing the next psychological zone near the 50-day SMA around 8800.

BEARISH:
If the RBA signals no rush to ease policy in 2026, AU200 may slip below 8560, exposing the 200-day SMA at 8520, and potentially 8400.

🥇

XAUUSD: GOLD ON BREAKOUT WATCH

DID YOU KNOW…
This week’s Fed decision could set the tone for the entire gold market as we move deeper into December.
XAUUSD remains trapped inside a tight range, with support at $4165 and resistance at $4240.

🔥THE LOWDOWN

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps on Wednesday.
But the real market movers will be:
• Updated economic projections
• The new dot plot
• Powell’s press conference

A subtle shift in tone could be enough to jolt gold sharply in either direction.

📉POTENTIAL IMPACT

Dovish tilt:
→ Weaker dollar
→ Gold & silver may push higher

Hawkish tilt:
→ Stronger dollar
→ Gold may face headwinds

🌍OTHER FORCES AT PLAY

🇺🇦Ukraine peace talks
Trump signaled Zelenskyy is not ready to accept the U.S.-backed proposal.
Renewed geopolitical uncertainty could keep demand for safe havens elevated.

🏦Central bank gold buying
China increased its gold reserves for the 13th straight month, reinforcing long-term demand.

📌 Traders currently price a 92% chance of a December Fed cut.

📊

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

BULLISH:
A breakout above $4240 could fuel a rally toward $4300 and $4308.71 (Bloomberg FX model upper limit).

BEARISH:
A drop below $4200 opens the path toward $4165 and $4118.41 (model lower limit).

🎥 [NEW VIDEO] THE WEEK AHEAD

The Fed rate decision could be Q4’s biggest catalyst. And while a December cut looks likely, the 2026 path is wide open.

🔍 In this video:
🏦Fed decision preview: Incomplete data and a split committee.
📈 Dot plot signals: New projections could shape 2026 cuts.
🪙Market impact map: USD scenarios, Equities, Gold, and Bitcoin.
⚡️Volatility watch: RUS2000, NAS100, and BTC primed for ±1.5% post-decision moves.

🎯 Dovish lift or hawkish hit? Which way do risk assets break first?

#FXTM#TheWeekAhead#Fed#FOMC#RateDecision#DotPlot#USD#Gold#Silver#Bitcoin#NAS100#RUS2000#MarketOutlook#TradingOpportunities

📲 Watch the full breakdown, only on FXTM’s official Telegram. 👇

💵

USDCAD: U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS & CANADA IVEY PMI (Thu, Dec 4)

USDCAD is holding steady this week as traders brace for a two-part data combo:
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
• Canada’s Ivey PMI (seasonally adjusted)

The U.S. labor market remains firm with claims near 216K, while Canada’s latest Ivey PMI at 52.4 signals softer-but-still-expanding business activity.

Both prints on Thursday could spark fresh volatility.

📆

When?
Thu, Dec 4 @ 13:30 GMT – U.S. Jobless Claims
Thu, Dec 4 @ 15:00 GMT – Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)

📊Expectations:
• U.S. Claims: ~220K
• Canada Ivey PMI: ~52–53

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE USDCAD?

📉CAD Strength (USDCAD lower):
• Higher U.S. claims (≥230K) → cooling labor → softer USD
• AND a strong Canada PMI (≥55) → stronger CAD

📈USD Strength (USDCAD higher):
• Lower U.S. claims (≤215K) → solid labor → firmer USD
• AND a weak Canada PMI (≤50) → softer CAD

⚖️Range-Bound:
• Claims ~220K + PMI ~52–53 → neutral outcome

📊

KEY LEVELS (USDCAD)
Support: 1.39350
Resistance: 1.40115

📈NAS100: U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (Thu, Dec 4)

Initial jobless claims remain one of the most closely watched weekly indicators as markets fine-tune expectations for the Fed’s next moves.

The latest print came in around 216K, slightly below last week’s 222K, and consensus sees this week near 220K.

For the NAS100, the logic is simple:
Cooling labor → more rate-cut bets → tech supported.
Stronger labor → fewer cuts → yields rise → tech pressured.

📆

When?
Thu, Dec 4 @ 13:30 GMT

📊Expected: ~220K

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE NAS100?

📉Claims lower than expected (≤215K)
→ Labor looks firm
→ Fed cuts look less urgent
→ NAS100 may see mild downside

⚖️Claims near 220K
→ Balanced signal
→ Range-bound trading

📈Claims higher (≥230K)
→ Cooling labor
→ Boosts rate-cut bets
→ NAS100 may edge higher

📊

KEY LEVELS (NAS100)
Support: 50-day MA
Resistance: 25,814.9

🛢

WTI: EIA CRUDE OIL STOCKS ON THE RADAR

WTI is trading in the $57–59 range after last week’s surprise +2.77M barrel build in U.S. crude inventories — a jump that caught many traders off guard.

With oversupply concerns simmering, today’s EIA report could be a key catalyst for the next move in oil.

📆

When?
Wed, Dec 3 @ 15:30 GMT

📊Market Expectation:
A modest change — either a small draw or a small build — after last week’s larger increase.

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE WTI?

📈Big Draw (≥ –3M barrels)
→ Signals tightening supply
→ Could lift WTI back toward $59–60+

⚖️Modest Change
→ Small draw/build likely keeps WTI locked in the $57–59 range

📉Big Build (≥ +3M barrels)
→ Reinforces oversupply fears
→ Could pressure WTI toward $56–57

📊

KEY LEVELS (WTI)
Support: ~$57.37
Resistance: 50-day MA

💵USDInd: ISM SERVICES PMI IN FOCUS

The Dollar Index has slipped toward 99.3–99.5 after last week’s run-up, as markets lean more confidently toward 2025 rate-cut expectations.
Today’s ISMServices PMI could be the next big catalyst for USD direction.

The previous reading (Oct) came in at 52.4, signalling modest expansion in the U.S. services sector — still healthy even as manufacturing lags.

📆

When?
Wed, Dec 3 @ 15:00 GMT

🧮 Expected: ~52.1 (slightly softer than last month)

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE THE DOLLAR?

📈Stronger-than-expected PMI (≥53.0)
→ Signals resilient service-sector momentum
→ Boosts the USD, pushing USDInd toward resistance

⚖️ In-line PMI (~52.1)
→ Neutral read; USD likely stays range-bound

📉Weaker PMI (≤51.0)
→ Hints at cooling growth
→ Increases rate-cut expectations → USD may soften

📊

KEY LEVELS (USDInd)
Support: 50-day MA near 99.033
Resistance: 99.627 and 100.327

🇺🇸 USDCHF – Swiss Franc Edges Into Data Crosswinds

The Swiss franc heads into Wednesday’s session at a sensitive moment as Switzerland’s CPI and the U.S. ISM Services PMI hit on the same day — a combo that could inject sharp volatility into USDCHF.

Swiss inflation has been near zero for months, raising questions about how long the SNB can tolerate ultra-subdued price growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector remains a key gauge of economic momentum.

📆

Key Events – Wed, Dec 3

🇨🇭 Switzerland CPI (07:30 GMT / 11:30 GST)
• Expected YoY: 0.1%
• Expected MoM: –0.1%
📈 USDCHF expected move: +0.4% / –0.6%

🇺🇸 US ISM Services PMI (15:00 GMT / 19:00 GST)
• (See AUDUSD post — consensus: ~52.1)
📈 USDCHF expected move: ±0.2%

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE USDCHF?

USDCHF sits inside a multi-month symmetrical triangle, hovering just above the 21-day MA — meaning even small data surprises could break the structure.

📊

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

🟢BULLISH USDCHF (USD higher / CHF weaker):
• Swiss CPI comes in softer or negative (≤0.0%)
• AND/OR U.S. ISM Services beats (≥53.0)
→ Traders lean into dovish SNB bets + stronger USD demand.
📍 Upside targets: 0.81019 (trendline resistance)
Above that: 0.81710 (Aug 1 swing high, near 200-day MA)

🔴BEARISH USDCHF (USD lower / CHF stronger):
• Swiss CPI hotter (≥0.3%)
• AND/OR U.S. ISM Services misses (<51.5)
→ SNB easing expectations fade while USD softens.
📍 Downside levels: 0.79960 (50-day MA)
A close below exposes: 0.79011 (triangle support)

🇦🇺AUDUSD – Aussie Braces for a Two-Punch Data Test

The Aussie faces a high-volatility doubleheader on Wednesday as traders gear up for Australia’s Q3 GDP and the U.S. ISM Services PMI — two releases that could shake AUDUSD sharply.

📆

When?

🇦🇺Australia Q3 GDP
📆 Wed, Dec 3
⏰ 00:30 GMT / 04:30 GST
• Expected QoQ: 0.7%
• Expected YoY: 2.2%
📈 AUDUSD expected move: +0.1% / –0.5%

🇺🇸ISM Services PMI (US)
📆 Wed, Dec 3
⏰ 15:00 GMT / 19:00 GST
• Consensus: 52.1
📈 AUDUSD expected move: +0.3% / –0.4%

🔥WHAT COULD MOVE AUDUSD?

A stronger-than-expected Australian GDP would signal resilient growth — boosting the Aussie.
A weaker print, combined with firmer U.S. services data, may reinforce USD strength and pressure AUDUSD lower.

Tariff uncertainty and cooling labour momentum are also in focus as traders reassess both economies.

📊

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

🟢BULLISH AUDUSD:
A strong Australia GDP + softer U.S. services data could lift the pair above the falling wedge structure, targeting the major descending trendline from March 2021 at 0.66615.

🔴BEARISH AUDUSD:
Soft GDP and/or a firm U.S. ISM print may drag AUDUSD toward the 50-day MA (0.65289) and 21-day MA (0.65150).
A close below these opens the door toward the 200-day MA at 0.64640.

✅Save the key dates of this month!⁣

Head over to our economic calendar for more details including:⁣

⁣📍Localized event timings⁣
📖 Previous results⁣
📊 Analyst predictions⁣

🧡 Link to our economic calendar 👉https://bit.ly/4oL1GMp

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